Bill Lussenheide
Joined: 02 Aug 2007
Posts: 1
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Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:55 am Post subject: Market Commentary For The Week Of July 30th, 2007 |
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Our current trend following positions, BUY SIGNALS...NDX 100, SP 500,
CRB Commodity Index, European Equity Index, Japanese Equity Index
SELL SIGNALS . REIT Index Funds, US Bonds
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***China in constant need for natural resources to feed its 10%+
annual GDP growth has been eyeing Africa. Although, rich in oil,
natural gas, aluminum, copper, nickel, copper, platinum, precious
stones and iron ore, Africa is hungry for investment, especially in
infrastructure.
China has the technology and the money to spend in Africa. Bridges,
roads, dams, stadiums, hospitals, schools, factories and power plants
are all on the agenda. Beijing's presence is being felt in virtually
every African nation. Recently they even launched a satellite for oil
rich Nigeria! With more than $1.3 trillion dollars to spend, look for
an Africa increasingly dependent on China for investment.
Cleverly, the Chinese have established manufacturing plants in
Africa, from which they can ship products to the United States,
circumventing U.S. tariffs on products from China. The G8 nations
have been insisting on human rights improvements in Africa in
exchange for IMF funding and aid. China, unfortunately, has taken
a "what Africa does, is Africa's business" in terms of human rights
progress and will continue investment at record rates, regardless of
any political or social ramifications.
***"Buy and Hold" is touted by many institutional advisors and mutual
funds. The dangers associated with buy and hold are seldom mentioned
or discussed. Historically on average, a bear market has occurred
about once every 4 to 5 years. On average these declines have been
more than 30%. However, in the past 100 years there have been
declines of 86%, 54% and 48%. The recovery time required for the
average bear market recovery has been 7.5 years, although in the past
century there have been periods of both 16 and 25 years required to
recover from losses on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just to
break even.
Our models are defensive in nature and are designed to track the
intermediate term trends of the market. They shine the best at
protecting capital and avoiding big losses in the market. It is not a
matter of "if" there will be another bear market, but a matter of
when.
Remember, it is not about "how much you make" that allows you to be a
successful investor, but rather the ability to avoid and minimize
losses that protects long term profits.
Would you like to receive my free confidential newsletter
notification of updates directly? Simply send an email with the
word "SUBSCRIBE" in the header and body in the form available
by clicking or emailing here...
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